China’s LNG import growth a known unknown

Diverse views on the outlook for China’s LNG imports were aired in Beijing last week, with the range of forecasts reflecting uncertainties over future growth in the world’s third-biggest gas market and perhaps some hidden agendas as well.

Demand from China failed to grow to the extent anticipated in 2014, prompting revised estimates for how much LNG the country will need in the future. Chinese imports increased by only 10% year on year in 2014 to 19.89 mt, down sharply from 22.72% in 2012-2013 and 20.26% in 2011-2012.

But some experts at the China LNG International Summit shrugged off the slowdown as a blip and predicted continued robust growth. LNG imports could reach 60 mtpa by 2020, according to Hu Weiping, former deputy director general of the Department of Oil and Gas at the National Energy Administration.

The need for a cleaner energy mix and growing concern for the environment could propel imports to 80 mtpa by 2025, according to Hu. Another driver cited was the low penetration of gas in China, which leaves ample room for growth. "We need to cover the first-, second- and third-tier cities," said Hu.

The former energy official noted Beijing – which consumes around 13 billion cubic metres per year – has encouraged the use of gas using fiscal revenue raised from taxation and other sources to offer financial support.

"There might be some price difference between imported gas and local market gas, so the government can give users some subsidies for this. If China’s capital can do this, I think you can say other cities could follow," said Hu.

Other speakers were far less bullish on LNG demand. Han Jingkuan, vice president of the PetroChina Strategy and Research Centre, forecast that China would import 31-56 bcm/y of gas as LNG by 2020, equivalent to 22.94-41.44 mtpa.

Imports could fall as low as 13 bcm/y by 2025 – equal to just 9.62 mt – as the addition of unconventional gas sources such as shale and coal-to-gas back out some imports, according to Han. But the likelihood of such a steep drop in imports is unclear, given that China’s take-or-pay contracts do not start to expire until 2030-2035.

China’s three NOCs have already locked in more than 43.75 mtpa of term volumes, which would suggest the Chinese LNG market is over-contracted for the next decade, said Han.

China will consume 28.6 bcm/y – or 21.16 mtpa – of LNG by 2020, with 78.3% burned as fuel by vehicles, 9.5% used as bunker fuel and 3.9% acting as a supplemental source of gas during the heating season.

PetroChina may have an ulterior motive for its more pessimistic outlook. The state energy giant could be looking to play down China’s LNG market to improve its bargaining position when negotiating LNG deals in the future, said an analyst at the event who requested anonymity.

By presenting weaker forecasts, PetroChina may be aiming to discourage the emergence of competing importers, according to the analyst. A number of new domestic buyers are stepping up efforts to import LNG at bargain prices, with some having made progress in spot procurement, term contracting and infrastructure development.

Construction of two independently owned LNG terminals is underway. Guanghui Energy’s LNG project in Qidong will begin trial operations in October 2016, according to the company’s Vice President Wang Jian Jun. ENN Group’s terminal in Zhoushan is slated to start up in 2017, said Vice President Ma Shenyuan. The companies imported their first LNG cargoes into China in March and December, respectively.

‘Growing pains’

A sharp slowdown in gas demand growth, to 5.6% in 2014, has triggered some concern over near-term appetite for the fuel. The Chinese gas market is experiencing "growing pains", said Yingying Zhou, principal analyst for Asian gas at consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

A number of factors have buffeted the market in recent months. Soft economic growth last year sapped demand for gas and power, while low oil prices relative to domestic gas tariffs also restricted the pace of gas consumption growth – especially in power, industry and transport – according to Zhou.

Industrial overcapacity has also constrained power demand growth, leading to reduced need for gas-fired power, and city-gate prices are relatively high despite a cut on 1 April.

Han predicted China’s gas consumption would reach 320-360 bcm/y by 2020, before rising to 410-470 bcm/y by 2025. The central government said last year that China would use 400-420 bcm/y by 2020, but later revised its estimate down to 360 bcm/y.